Public sentiment is marked by skepticism and concern over military escalations in the Israel-Houthi conflict, Israel's actions in Gaza, and the broader Middle Eastern geopolitical dynamics. There is a widespread belief in the severe consequences of potential escalations, affecting not only Israel and Yemen but regional stability. The discourse highlights humanitarian concerns, particularly the plight of civilians, and reflects cynicism about peaceful resolutions amidst complex alliances, including the role of the U.S.

Israel

Houthis

United States

Hezbollah

Iran

From Wikipedia: "Cyprus is one of four European Union (EU) member states which is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the only one not to participate in NATO's Partnership for Peace (PfP) program."

one_dalmatian

Hezbollah aren’t run by idiots… attacking Cyprus would put them at war footing with the European Union…. Seems unwise

bucketup123

Submission statement: The article from CNN covers recent developments where a Hezbollah leader issued threats towards Cyprus amidst escalating tensions with Israel. It discusses the geopolitical context behind these threats, highlighting the regional implications and concerns over potential conflict escalation. The article provides insights into Hezbollah's strategic motivations and the broader implications for Middle Eastern stability, emphasizing the impact on international relations and security in the region.

RagnarLTK_

There’s a big difference between playing an escalatory dominance game, and actually taking action. Hezbollah will never attack Cyprus; it’s just simply not in their ‘National’ interest. Hezbollah is miles away from a none rational actors like ISIS for example, to start something so reckless.

[deleted]

It is time to send Hassan Nasrallah to paradise.

PurpleYoda319

Both sides need to find an off ramp here. An all out war between Hezbollah and the IDF will devastate both Israel and Lebanon. Biden needs to threaten Netanyahu with a complete suspension of all military aid if Israel threatens to attack Lebanon.

LeopardFan9299

Draw Cyprus into the fight. Sure, we can settle that issue too. 

I think the strategy here in simple terms is to draw Turkey into the fight. Hezbollah may not be able to go toe-to-toe with the IDF, but Turkey certainly has the capability to engage IDF units. If Turkey's interests like Cyprus are under threat then they are more likely to "join the fight".

What that will look like is hard to say, and I have not kept up on Turkey's capabilities. I do know that Turkey has invested in drone tech.

But overall, this is Hezbollah (Iran, a de facto Russian ally) driving a wedge between EU and other states. Diplomacy is collapsing. Whatever your feelings are about Partisan politics or certain ME states, the lines for global war are being drawn. Its time to stand and face the external threat instead of bickering about stupid things. This is the 21st Century Chamberlain moment.

Gajanvihari

The U.S. would directly join in those hostilities and Lebanon would be very much worse off for it. They have too many missiles and rockets for Israel to go it alone.

Itsonrandom2

To make a long story short - Israel won this entire conflict from a strategic point of view.
From a situation of Israel facing intimidating rivals such as Iran with their powerful proxies surrounding them from all fronts, to a situation in which these proxies are not existing or massively degraded while Iran itself think twice before retaliation.
I know that the hostages are still in Gaza and there's still conflict going on, but the bigger picture here is that Israel showed their enemies that things changed and Iran's wet dream of attacking Israel from 7 fronts and making them collapse simply won't happen (and I'm not even talking about the fact the trump won and appointed the most pro Israeli politicians out there for the most important roles).

Electronic_Main_2254

\[SS from essay by Carrie A. Lee,  Chair of the Department of National Security and Strategy and Director of the Civil-Military Relations Center at the U.S. Army War College. The views expressed here are her own.\]

Last April, it appeared as though escalation between Israel and Iran could plunge the entire Middle East into conflict. Israel’s strikes on the Iranian consulate in Damascus prompted Iran to retaliate by launching a barrage of missiles and rockets into Israel—the first time that Iran had openly attacked the country. But after Israel responded in a relatively muted way, both countries moved on from the confrontation. Observers, too, put aside their most acute worries, comforted by the fact that both countries had shown that they had no interest in a wider war.

This conclusion, however, was premature. In September, Israel intensified its campaign against [Hezbollah](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/tags/hezbollah), the Iranian-backed paramilitary group operating in Lebanon. This marked an important shift: it suggests that Israeli leaders decided they wanted to actively reshape the balance of power in the Middle East. Much more than its actions in Gaza, Israel’s war against Hezbollah threatens Iran’s ability to project power and profoundly diminishes its ability to deter Israeli interventions into its own domestic politics and nuclear program. The weakening of Iran’s position will benefit Israelis in the short term. But in the long term, it will significantly increase the risk of a regional war and even the likelihood that Iran will acquire nuclear weapons. To avoid being dragged into yet more conflict in the Middle East, the United States must work to restrain further Israeli action and stabilize the balance of power.

ForeignAffairsMag

Even if they do go to war they dont share a border so at most it will be bombing campaigns, assasinations (mostly on Iranian territorry) , shouting matches and dislikes on Reddit (and other platforms).

With respect to what the others would do - they would not get involved and secretly hope Iran loses.

RudibertRiverhopper

There's no way Arab countries can fight alongside Israel against Iran. People would overthrow the government in no time. They stayed neutral probably

Aretim33

I think middle eastern politics are simplified and vastly misunderstood by people in the west. I am not going to go through all the details, but just will say this: there is NO UNIVERSE where Saudi Arabia will side with Israel against Iran in an open war between Iran and Israel.

Yalkim

Iran has no ability to project military power on Israel other than through their proxies Hezbollah and Hamas. The most likely scenario for a wider conflict/escalation would be the US getting dragged into taking out Iranian air bases and drone facilities from the air while Israel fights a two front war on the on ground. Plus all out asymmetrical war (cyber, increased threat of terrorism, propaganda, etc). No Arab country is going to come to Israel’s aid, not a chance. They’ll sit back and let the US intervene and then wait for the dust to settle to renew their economic plans. Saudi is the wealthiest country in the ME and they can’t even adequately conduct a war against Houthi rebels. They are all but begging the US for a long term security guarantee.

stonetime10

Iran's military strategy and doctrine is purely defensive. They are not going to invade anyone. Their Air Force has very old planes too. They have F-4 squadrons. My dad flew F-4's in Vietnam.

Kav_McGraw

Continue to posture and otherwise do nothing, anyone with half a brain knows that if Iran gets involved the US gets involved and nobody wants that action

FenrisCain

Bahrain houses the US 5th fleet so if America gets roped in (which it almost certainly would), Iran would target naval bases like that one.

Major Arab countries will not join this fictional war. There are no substantial benefits to support either of the two. 

Iran cannot wage war against Israel. The Iranian military is, at best, a small regional power. Their air force is not large or advanced enough to sustain a long campaign against Israel.

loned__

Your premise is wrong.  Iran wouldn't go to war against Israel, it would go to war against Israel and the US. 

The US is the elephant in the room (it already has one carrier group in the area and at least one more on the way).  Iran may have some radicals eager for a fight with the US, but I predict calmer heads will prevail because Iran's military would be destroyed without much difficulty by the US, and that destruction would risk the continuance of the current Iranian power structure, i.e. kill the Revolution (or what's left of it).  I just don't think Iran will risk the fight.  

The US is allies with the Saudis and both are enemies of Iran.  It's always possible the Saudis would decide this is the moment to abandon the US after all of these years, but unlikely since almost all of their military equipment comes from the US and because they currently share Iran as a common enemy.  Emirates and Bahrain would likely follow the Saudis.

phreeeman

Stay out of the way because the US has 2 CSGs and an ARG in the region

a_simple_spectre

More generally, the Middle East is and has always been the gateway to Asia for Europe, only more so after the Suez. When the region is stable, trade between the regions is allowed to coalesce there and forms powerful blocs, as with the Ottoman Empire and Persian ones before it. It also provided a significant part of British superpower when Britain controlled it, allowing a European power like Britain to access the wealth of South Asia. Because the area is too far from the Atlantic for the US to meaningfully control as a puppet(see failed attempts with Iranian coup etc), it has settled for ensuring at least a few friendly outposts in the area with discord elsewhere so no one else can take advantage. 

You often see many strategists moaning about Russia adjoining with China being the ultimate sin for America to allow, since it allows them to create a true Eurasian bloc, along with the USSR sort of being the original version of this. Well, this is another version which the US is loathe to allow to any other power, including European ones(See Suez crisis).

A power which controlled both the Eastern Mediterranean and the West Indian Ocean would be strategically important on the level of US control of Panama, for example, which arguably was a large part of US success.

InfelixTurnus

Temporary-Truth2048

They would stay put while USA carpet bombs Iran.

DiethylamideProphet

Sit back, don't have a beer, and watch the Americans bomb them back to Allah.

AlBundyJr

Nobody is going to indulge in their war. I don’t know why Iran is trying to behave like saviours of Islam. If US attacks Iran then nobody is going to support them.

Neighbouring Countries can give their sympathies only.

While some may not actively support Iran, I don't believe any Arab/Islamic nations will support Israel. They will all be under enormous public pressure to join in attacking Israel; having Iran on their side may make them think that they will succeed. If Turkey, Egypt, etc.,  join in as well, then all bets are off. Prepare your nuclear fallout shelter.

Successful_Ride6920

I'd get the pop corn out and watch them sling missiles over Jordan and Iraq.

Magicalsandwichpress

I hear a lot of shit talking on here, but according to history books, Israel has won every single war its Ben in, oh small little detail here, they were attacked first every time! Yet won every time, anytime the Americans have faced off militarily against Iran, Iran got their ass kicked, fun video to watch for all the people here saying Iran can beat Israel and America, and Canada, Great Britain, France Poland, the west is going down!!  Watch on YouTube a American F-22 flying upside down under a Iranian F4 phantom, ironically made in America, by the way, in the 1970’s, that’s over 5 decades old technology people, so the phantom with its Stone Age radar is incapable of picking up the Raptor, it’s literally like a 100 yards underneath it, then the American pilot taunts the Iranians telling him “you really out to go home” the Iranian pilot I think shit in his pants, he’s terrified, why? You ask? Bc he knows he can’t track the F-22, and at any time it wants the F-22 can blow that antique out of the sky, for context before the Iranian pilot relized the raptor was there he was super confident when they were tracking a American drone, talking shit, threatening to shoot it down, not talking shit anymore, they ran for their lives,

Kaye-77

Iran shouts "Israel has crossed a red line" and "we defend the people of Gaza". While they do not take refugees or even any constructive action to improve the wellbeing of the people. 

So why would they even go to war? It's not to defend the people of Gaza.

Iran doesn't even have the capacity to project its military directly that far. They are good at asymmetric war and other countries won't risking it by helping Iran since it would mean going against most major powers. I doubt considering the current Iranian regime their population would fight for their supreme leader.

Aggravating_Boy3873

Turkey would wait for a weakened Iran and then invade the northern reaches to connect with the azerbaijanis.

The Israelis are never invading, so at most we are talking about a huge bombardment campaign on military installations and industrial plants.

The US would destroy Iran. Other countries in the middle east would do nothing.

Silver_Switch_3109

According to the right wing Americans, that's the "fuse" of the rapture. So they think total warfare will break out. And - they are psyched about it!  It continues to sound like just fringe belief stuff . . . but this is mainstream Christian-Nationalist talk now.

The_Observer_Effects

They oppose Iran, and would like Israeli technology (and see no point in fighting a war), so they would stand in the sidelines and facilitate US support to Israel. That would be the extent of it.

cataractum

Aren’t they already technically in a war using the Arab world as a proxy?

Successful_Second321

You know who the elephant in the room is, right? The one which has multiple aircraft carrier groups.

EuphoricCareer4581

   When has the middle east not been a cauldron of war? I believe the correct answer is, the Middle East has always been a cauldron of war.

RobotAlbertross

For the ones who are here debating against Trump, did you see what he did the Russian Wagner mercenaries in Syria? He told his generals I want to send a message to the enemies of the United States, so when Wagner led troops attacked a oil refinery guarded by American special forces, the Americans tried several times by calling the Russians, and after the Russians lied several times, Trump told his generals, send in every! Including the kitchen sink! That’s a American thing, it’s means send in literally every thing we got, and they did, Raptor drones, F-22’s, Apache helicopters, Himars, 155mm m777, ac-130, f-15, B-52, ending result over 300 killed out of the 500 attacking force, literally every single vehicle or tank, truck, scooter, camel, destroyed,

When Hamas is feeling the pressure, we see a lot more of these generic posts trying to protect Hamas' position and existence.

rayinho121212

&gt; Pictures of starving Palestinian children, barely functioning medical facilities, and a war-ravaged uninhabitable territory that Israel is about to devastate further don’t make for good optics as Mr. Trump tries to nail down up to US$2.4 trillion in Gulf investments in the United States.



Hamas as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood and Gulf monarchies including the UAE and Saudi are enemies Trump has nothing to worry about. Where are these pics of starving kids? Share a resource

theOxCanFlipOff

As always, a great article. The plan that was approved on Monday was approved because Trump enabled it with his statements last February 100%. Trump has repeatedly enabled Israel's campaign of mass destruction in Gaza. He lifted a hold on 2,000 pound bombs during his first week in office and in March he bypassed congress to send an additional $4 billion to Israel. Honestly, it would best serve America's interests in the middle east if they pressured Israel harder to lift the blockade. America has also done a couple air drops of food aid, but it wasn't nearly enough. Furthermore many meals were allegedly inedible without a microwave, which Gazans don't have access to since they currently have no access to electricity or fuel. If there were more air drops that actually got enough food in, if there was a Berlin airlift sort of operation to get food into Gaza to save Gazan Palestinians from starvation, that would be awesome.

You do a great job of showing how evil the current plan is to the Palestinians and how it reflects an expansionist, settler colonialist, imperialist, fascist attitude. I'm not sure of all those labels are right, but I'm sure at least one is and you would of course know best, as I can reasonably infer you have a PhD in international studies.

Humorous_forest

The gulf Arabs are receiving billions from the American government in direct military support to guard them from Iran and ISIS. If they wish to bring before Trump the lies about “starving children” and “genocide”, I hope Donald Trump will have the strength to not let them push him around. 

I don’t think President Trump is the type of person who will tolerate domineering Islamists lying to him about a jihadi terror gang in order to help said gang survive to fight another day. 

Countries like Qatar have spent billions on terrorists, including in Gaza. Who are they to have a say?? They should be apologizing, not pushing their lies.

BizzareRep

Now 21 to 24 live hostages exists. An again those fantastic trillions :)  
Trump's nonsense about population evacuation has little to do with all staff, And surely know that.   
You sort all over the place and you can easily reduce this article by 50% and tell that Israel moving to combined occupation of Gaza with aim to remove Hamas as managing entity of Gaza.

vovap_vovap

I can never figure out why Egypt doesn't help more.  They are right on the border with Gaza.

doghouseman03

Where are the photos of starving Palestinian children you claim?

rhombergnation

I think your assessment of the pressure on Arab leaders is too pessimistic. I agree that the current situation is likely to spark some sympathy for Palestinians and make it harder to simply ignore the issue. However, what the Trump Plan did is moving the goalposts: in the past, the bar was essentially "end of the occupation and a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capita", if not additionally the return of the descendants of 1948 refugees to their former homes. Now, on the other hand, any solution that allows Gazans to remain in Gaza and lets them have basic healthcare and three meals a day can be sold as a success.

JustResearchReasons

All this talk talk.
It’s over for them Pallies, it’s not that difficult to see.

They should have refused, the candy..but didn’t.
They should not have partied on the taken dead.
But, they did..
Now they have the bitter fruits of terrorisme.

Hamas? Good job, wel done!
Congrats!! 

/r

crooked_cat

I heard a lot of scare mongering when the US embassy was moved to Jerusalem, too. It was supposed to ignite the middle east. Nothing much happened. Same here.

CaregiverTime5713

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This isn’t some lone effort by the U.S. to ignore the genocide and bomb Yemen for no reason. Both the U.S. and U.K. ships were collectively repelling attacks against the Houthis because:

1. The Houthis are disrupting maritime trade by attacking transport trade ships

2. The Houthis have attacked both U.S. and U.K. ships in the process.

Also there is no “escalation” because they can’t do anything and I don’t really think this will stir up some neighboring country all because the U.S. bombed people who *checks notes* attacked and disrupted trade.

spectre15

The Houthis have been fucking around in the Red sea long before Oct 7th. They released hundreds of sea mines into it two summers ago for fuck sakes. You have zero evidence that a ceasefire in Israel would result in them unilaterally ceasing piracy operations.  Furthermore, the Houthis are hardly even targeting Israeli ships. None of the affected vessels were flagged as Israeli, some weren't even carrying cargo affiliated with Israel or destined for their ports at all. 


Disrupting international trade affects far more than just Israel, The Houthis and the USA, and we can't just let people do piracy and cause vulnerable populations elsewhere around the world to starve just because they *say* it's for a noble cause (ie. Resisting genocide).


Egypt is being hit disproportionately hard by Houthi piracy, despite them vocally opposing the Israeli genocide. It's population is suffering under an already crippling debt crisis, and throwing an abrupt trade stoppage into their economy is going to absolutely fuck their poor up even harder. This issue is way wider than you think it is

Your argument, after having read all of it, reeks of appeasement to me. This isn't a jab but instead how I've read your argument. It assumes an amount of good faith action by a group of individuals that seem incapable of good faith action, the Houthi's. Point 4, which honestly is the hinge of the argument itself and the rest of it just leads up to it, is \*incredibly\* weak and doesn't have enough supporting evidence to assume that it would be the likely outcome. There's a lot of rationality assumptions in the Houthi's and Iran both on your end to come to the conclusion you have.

Uncle_Twisty

Idk based vaush take. “America bad” but apparently we went so hard with that message people believe religious terrorists are the good guys

backagain69696969

Then the blood of thousands of Yemeni children is on your hands. Yemen is in the middle of an acute food [shortage](https://www.wfp.org/emergencies/yemen-emergency) right now. Currently 70% of Yemeni food imports enter through Hodeidah Port (aka a Red Sea port) so if commercial traffic through the Red Sea is disrupted, then food prices in Yemen will rise as a result.

This is also completely glossing over what the Houthis are doing are a violation of international law.

&amp;#x200B;

&gt;Article 44  
Duties of States bordering straits  
&gt;  
&gt;  
States bordering straits shall not hamper transit passage and shall give  
appropriate publicity to any danger to navigation or overflight within or over  
the strait of which they have knowledge. There shall be no suspension of  
transit passage.

angrysc0tsman12

Everyone who disagrees with Vaush is objectively wrong. Don't touch our boats.

Green-Collection-968

1.  The Houthis have been given ample opportunity not to find out, despite having fucked around.
2. Citing Israel's human rights abuses does not give one license to do whatever one wants. International shipping at large has virtually nothing to do with Israel, and so the Houthis' behavior can hardly be described as anything but "lashing out at the world," which isn't an acceptable means of advocating human rights.

PlausibleFalsehoods

you are saying all we have to do is stop the genocide in gaza? as if we didn’t already want to do that? saying “stop the genocide” doesn’t actually stop it.

we just saw the “stop the genocide” court hearing at the ICJ. the problem is, even the UN doesn’t have the power to stop the killing. If you can’t enforce a decision… nothing will change.

Shooting at the US military to get us to stop Israel in Gaza? That’s galaxy brain thinking. What’s the Houthis leverage on America because we have f35s, B2s, B52s, ships, missiles, and can make you stop. You’re also really giving Iran Russia and China a lot of credit here

Dumbledick6

War is bad. War is violent. 

However, stealing a cargo ship and disrupting global trade does nothing to lower these conditions.

You can write multiple paragraphs it doesn’t change this reality. 

(Civilian deaths are tragic im not disagreeing but objectivity is key)

PW0110

Guys you know my history here. Please read my argument fairly and completely. Don’t jump to conclusions. I am willing to have my mind changed.

Eyeontheprize420

Recent tensions have flared between Israel and Yemen's Houthi group following a missile attack claimed by the Houthis on Israel's Ben Gurion Airport. In retaliation, Israel launched airstrikes on two Houthi-controlled ports in Yemen.

Israel-Houthi Tensions and Escalation in Gaza Conflict

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